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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2021-09-28T07:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-09-28T07:00Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/17845/-1
CME Note: CME source was an eruption from AR2871 around 2021-09-28T05:36Z. This eruption was associated with a C1.6 flare that started at 2021-09-28T05:54Z and peaked at 2021-09-28T06:34Z. From Lan Jian: there is a nice ICME on Oct 1-2. The flux rope part starts at about 12:44 on Oct 1 and sends at about 12:44 on Oct 2. I don’t see any associated shock. If we need to set a start time for the sheath region, I would set at about 14:15 on Sept 30.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-09-30T14:15Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 4.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-09-30T15:00Z
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note: 
Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 2.2

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2021-09-28T11:06Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 861
Longitude (deg): W024
Latitude (deg): S10
Half-angular width (deg): 41

Notes: 
Space weather advisor: Dean Hall
Lead Time: 33.62 hour(s)
Difference: -0.75 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2021-09-29T04:38Z
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